The Population Research Center and project staff wish to acknowledge and express gratitude for support from the Forecast Advisory Committee (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Lane County
Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Lane County include Cottage Grove, Eugene, Florence, Springfield, Coburg, Creswell, Dunes City, Junction City, Lowell, Oakridge, Veneta, and Westfir.
Lane County’s total population had minimal growth in the 2000s. However, population growth occurred at different rates across the County as some of the sub-areas experienced faster growth while others declined in population during this period.
The population growth that did occur in Lane County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages led to stagnating birth rates and a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in 2017 for the first time since the turn of the century. Though net in-migration has fluctuated with business cycles, it has been high in recent years (2013-17), leading to strong population growth.
Total population in Lane County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely continue to grow at a similar rate as it has between 2010 and 2019. The County population growth is entirely driven by net in-migration as an aging population and stagnating birth rates are likely to lead to greater rates of natural decrease. Lane County’s total population is forecast to grow by roughly 55,000 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by nearly 110,000 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Jurjevich, Jason R.; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069" (2019). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 48.