This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Grant County
Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole.
Grant County’s sub-areas include Canyon City, Dayville, Granite, John Day, Long Creek, Monument, Mount Vernon, Prairie City, and Seneca. Grant County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Canyon City, Dayville, and Granite, for example, posted positive average annual growth rates during the 2000 to 2010 period.
The sporadic population growth that did occur in Grant County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2017, resulting in steady population decline.
Total population in Grant County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) than the long-term (2044-2069). Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Grant County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 605 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by more than 1,030 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Jurjevich, Jaason R.; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069" (2019). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 49.