This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Baker County
Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Baker County include Baker City, Greenhorn, Haines, Halfway, Huntington, Richland, Sumpter, and Unity.
Baker County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population decline during this period, while others experienced growth. Richland, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rate at 2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period, while Unity posted the lowest average annual growth rate of -5.9 percent.
The population growth that did occur in Baker County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2017, resulting in minimal population change.
Total population in Baker County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a slightly quicker pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Baker County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 700 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by 1,160 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Jurjevich, Jason R.; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069" (2019). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 51.