This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Wallowa County
Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Wallowa include Enterprise, Joseph, Lostine, and the city of Wallowa.
Wallowa County’s total population had minimal decline in the 2000s; however, population change varied across sub-areas. Enterprise, for example, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.3 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period.
The population decline in the 2000s stemmed from a consistent natural decrease with sporadic stretches of net out-migation. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2017, resulting in minimal population change.
Total population in Wallowa County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely continue to decline throughout the forecast but at a slightly higher pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. This population decline is largely driven by natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Wallowa County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 380 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by nearly 500 people over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Jurjevich, Jason R.; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069" (2019). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 53.