Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-30-2019
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Umatilla County
Abstract
Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Umatilla County include Adams, Athena, Echo, Helix, Hermiston, Milton-Freewater, Pendleton, Pilot Rock, Stanfield, Ukiah, the city of Umatilla, and Weston.
Umatilla County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Lakeside, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period.
The consistent population growth that did occur in Umatilla County in the 2000s was largely the result of a natural increase (more births than deaths). An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase in every year from 2000 to 2017. In recent years, net in-migration has offset a declining natural increase, resulting in steady population growth in the 2010s.
Total population in Umatilla County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely increase at a slightly higher rate in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. Population growth is driven initially by a natural increase in the near-term and by a growing number of net in-migrants throughout the forecast. Umatilla County’s total population is forecast to grow by roughly 10,150 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by more than 19,800 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).
Persistent Identifier
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/29308
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Jurjevich, Jason R.; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069" (2019). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 55.
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/29308
Umatilla County Introductory Presentations Sept. 2018
R2_Umatilla.pdf (2946 kB)
Umatilla County Preliminary Presentation 3/12/19
Umatilla_Final_Forecast.xlsx (65 kB)
Umatilla County Final Forecast Tables
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, and Umatilla County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.