This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Sherman County
Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Sherman County include Grass Valley, Moro, Rufus, and Wasco.
Sherman County’s total population declined the 2000s. Wasco was the only UGB to experience population growth, while all other UGBs declined between 0.4 and 0.7 percent. The area outside of the UGBs experienced a greater decline of 2.3 percent.
The population decline in 2000s was largely the result of net out-migration and periods of natural decrease. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in all but 4 years from 2000 to 2017, resulting in minimal population change.
Total population in Sherman County as a whole, as well as within the majority of its sub-areas, will likely continue to decline a slow pace throughout the forecast period. Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Sherman County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 90 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by more than 130 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Jurjevich, Jason R.; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Sherman County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069" (2019). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 56.