This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Morrow County
Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Morrow County include Boardman, Heppner, Ione, Irrigon, and Lexington.
Morrow County’s total population had minimal growth in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Boardman, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.0 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period.
The population growth in the 2000s was largely driven by a waning natural increase, more births than deaths. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. Still, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2001 to 2017. While net out-migration persisted during the 2000-10 period, in recent years (2013-16) net out-migration has slowed, leading to meager but steady population growth.
Total population in Morrow County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely increase at a quicker pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. Population growth is largely driven by net in-migration, which is expected to outweigh declining natural increase. Morrow County’s total population is forecast to increase by roughly 1,825 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by more than 3,650 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069).
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Jurjevich, Jason R.; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Morrow County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069" (2019). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 57.