This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Clatsop County
Different sub‐areas within Oregon’s counties experience different growth patterns. Those patterns combine to collectively determine county‐level demographic changes. Clatsop County is comprised of two types of sub‐areas: urban‐growth boundary (UGB) areas (Astoria, Cannon Beach, Gearhart, Seaside, and Warrenton) and areas outside of those UGBs. In this report, we describe demographic trends and forecasts for the county as a whole as well as its sub‐areas.
Clatsop County’s total population gradually increased in the 2000s (Figure 1). Some sub‐areas, such as Warrenton and Gearhart, experienced faster population growth, averaging between one and two percent growth annually. In contrast, Astoria lost population between 2000 and 2010, falling below the 10,000‐resident threshold.
The population growth that occurred in Clatsop County between 2000 and 2010 largely resulted from net in‐migration. Population growth due to natural increase (births minus deaths) hovered near zero during the same time period, with natural increase occurring in some years and natural decrease occurring in others. This trend came at a time when other parts of Oregon had already begun experiencing consistent natural decrease. Clatsop County managed to buck the trend due to a slight increase in its total fertility rate between 2000 and 2010. This increase in fertility counteracted, in the short term, the steadily rising number of deaths observed in the County as well as state‐ and nationwide due to the aging of the population.
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Runge, Paul; Cunningham, Mac; Loftus, Deborah; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Clatsop County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2020-2070" (2020). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 70.