Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Hydropower Design Under an Uncertain Hydrologic and Energy Market Future



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The USACE and Bonneville Power Administration utilize a stochastic modeling procedure to justify long term capital investments that incorporates uncertainty in hydrologic data, energy prices, failure and construction costs, and unit availability. These procedures have been effective in determining the tradeoffs between different sizes and types of turbines as well as construction timing. This presentation will step through the motivation and development of the modeling approach over the last 7 years. Additionally , the presentation will explore the opportunities for future modeling including incorporating climate change signals, monetizing ancillary services, and quantifying flexibility of hydropower systems to changes in operational patterns with the influx of new renewables.

Biographical Information

Mark has worked for the Hydropower Analysis Center (HAC) , a planning center of expertise for the Army Corps of Engineers for thirteen years as a mathematician and civil engineer.. His work has focused on quantifying impacts to hydropower due to water supply reallocations, estimating power potential of the Corps non-powered dams, and developing tools to best rehab the corps hydropower fleet. Mark has a Master’s degree from Humboldt State University in Mathematical Modeling and a Master’s degree from Portland State University in Civil Engineering.


Hydropower impacts, Nonstationary tides, Internal waves -- Mathematical models, Internal waves -- Remote sensing


Hydrology | Systems Science

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© Copyright Mark Parrish

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Hydropower Design Under an Uncertain Hydrologic and Energy Market Future