Technology Roadmap Through Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Scenarios: The Case of Wind Energy Sector of a Developing Country

Published In

Technology Analysis & Strategic Management

Document Type


Publication Date



Technological Change, Decision making, Technology -- Management


In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.

Locate the Document

PSU affiliates use Find in PSU library link at top.

Unaffiliated researchers can access the work here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09537325.2015.1073250