Technology Roadmap Through Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Scenarios: The Case of Wind Energy Sector of a Developing Country

Published In

Technology Analysis & Strategic Management

Document Type

Citation

Publication Date

8-24-2015

Subjects

Technological Change, Decision making, Technology -- Management

Abstract

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.

DOI

10.1080/09537325.2015.1073250

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/20753

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