Dynamic Modeling of Nonmedical Opioid Initiation: Epidemic and Access

Authors

Alexandra Nielsen, Portland State UniversityFollow
Teresa D. Schmidt, Portland State UniversityFollow
Dennis McCarty, Oregon Health & Science UniversityFollow
Wayne W. Wakeland, Portland State UniversityFollow

Sponsor

This work is supported by NIDA grant 5R21DA031361-02.

Document Type

Poster

Publication Date

6-2013

Subjects

System theory, Drugs -- Research -- United States, Opioid abuse, Opioid abuse -- Forecasting

Abstract

We report development of a systems level dynamic model of initiation and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the US. The model calibrated to 1995-2005 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data, predicts 2006-2011 data well. Preliminary findings indicate that interventions which reduce the perceived attractiveness of opioids for recreational use may be able to reduce initiation and nonmedical use most significantly, while supply restriction effected through drug take back days and prescribing changes may have more modest effects. We argue that system dynamics is an effective approach for evaluating potential interventions to this complex system where the use of pharmaceutical opioids to treat pain is fraught with undesirable distal outcomes.

Description

Poster presentation at the College on Problems of Drug Dependents, 75^th Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/17733

Citation Details

Nielsen, A., Schmidt, T.D., McCarty, D., Wakeland, W. (June 2013). Dynamic modeling of nonmedical opioid initiation: Epidemic and access. Poster presentation at the College on Problems of Drug Dependents, 75th Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA.