Published In

Continental Shelf Research

Document Type

Pre-Print

Publication Date

8-1-2026

Subjects

Storm surges -- Pacific Ocean-- Alaska, Coastal floods -- Alaska

Abstract

Coastal floods are composed of multiple drivers that interact with coastline geometries and are difficult to differentiate. To investigate the effects of basin shapes on storm surge and tides, we study the landfall of ex-Typhoon Merbok in the east Bering Sea, Alaska. Water levels at 34 stations are detided with a new tide wavelet tool, CWT_Multi (Lobo et al., 2024), and the spatial and temporal shifts in tides and surge are interpreted via long-wave theory. Results show nonstationary semiannual trends in tidal constituents due to ice effects and large interannual variability in mean-sea level (20-40 cm). After removing non-stationary tidal forcing from observed water levels, estimates of the spatial evolution of storm surge are less influenced by residual tide-surge interaction than using standard harmonic analysis methods for detiding. Results reveal that surge magnitudes increased into Norton Sound (diurnal resonance) and decreased into Bristol Bay (semidiurnal resonance). Landward funneling into the mixed tidal basin of the Kuskokwim River estuary amplified surge while attenuating tides at rates that reveal a frequency dependent response. The frequency response is explained using a non-dimensional friction-convergence parameter space. Storm surge amplification is strongly affected by convergence magnitude and depends on surge duration. Thus, common ∼1–2-day storm surges increase flood exposure more for communities with diurnal tides than communities with semidiurnal tides. Moreover, the duration of flooding and peak water levels are strongly influenced by basin geometry, in addition to variations in storm properties and continental shelf geometry, underscoring their importance in storm surge prediction.

Rights

© Copyright the author(s) 2026

Description

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published as: Storm Surge and Tides in Convergent Estuaries: the case of Extratropical Storm Merbok in Alaska. Continental Shelf Research, 105756.

DOI

10.1016/j.csr.2026.105756

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/45085

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