Published In

Sports Medicine International Open

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

10-9-2024

Subjects

Running -- Application software -- Development

Abstract

We introduce a novel approach for predicting running performance, designed to apply across a wide range of race distances (from marathons to ultras), elevation gains, and runner types (front-pack to back of the pack). To achieve this, the entire running logs of 15 runners, encompassing a total of 15,686 runs, were analyzed using two approaches: (1) regression and (2) time series regression (TSR). First, the prediction accuracy of a long short-term memory (LSTM) network was compared using both approaches. The regression approach demonstrated superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 89.13% in contrast, the TSR approach reached an accuracy of 85.21%. Both methods were evaluated using a test dataset that included the last 15 runs from each running log. Secondly, the performance of the LSTM model was compared against two benchmark models: Riegel formula and UltraSignup formula for a total of 60 races. The Riegel formula achieves an accuracy of 80%, UltraSignup 87.5%, and the LSTM model exhibits 90.4% accuracy. This work holds potential for integration into popular running apps and wearables, offering runners data-driven insights during their race preparations.

Rights

© 2024. The Author(s). This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonDerivative-NonCommercial-License, permitting copying and reproduction so long as the original work is given appropriate credit. Contents may not be used for commercial purposes, or adapted, remixed, transformed or built upon. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

DOI

10.1055/a-2401-6234

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/42771

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