Post COVID-19 Exit Strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges

Authors

Joshua Aizenman, University of Southern California
Hiro Ito, Portland State UniversityFollow

Published In

National Bureau of Economic Research

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

3-2022

Subjects

Globalization -- Marketing -- Economics

Abstract

We study emerging markets’ 1980s lost growth decade, triggered by the massive reversal of the snowball effect in the US during 1974–1984, finding that higher flow costs of servicing debt overhang explain the dramatic decline in growth rates of exposed emerging markets. We also show how lowering the US cost of servicing its public debt has been associated with higher US, Japan, and Western Europe real output growth rates during the post WWII recovery decades, 1946–1956, and validate that fiscal adjustments of large countries have strong growth and volatility spillovers effects on exposed emerging markets and developing countries.

Rights

Copyright (c) 2022 The Authors

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Locate the Document

https://doi.org/ 10.1111/roie.12608

DOI

10.1111/roie.12608

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/37230

Citation Details

Aizenman, J., & Ito, H. (2020). Post COVID-19 exit strategies and emerging markets economic challenges (No. w27966). National Bureau of Economic Research.