Document Type

Technical Report

Publication Date

6-1-2008

Subjects

Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, School enrollment -- Oregon -- Tigard -- Forecasting, School enrollment -- Oregon -- Tualatin -- Forecasting, Tigard‐Tualatin School District, Demographic surveys -- Oregon -- Tigard, Demographic surveys -- Oregon -- Tualatin

Abstract

To address their long-range planning needs, The Tigard-Tualatin School District (TTSD) requested that PRC prepare 10 year Enrollment Forecasts for the District and each of its existing schools. This forecast for the 2008-09 through 2017-18 school years has been prepared as a supplement to the 2008-09 to 2012-13 forecast that was presented to the TTSD Board in December, 2007. Forecasts for 2008-09 and 2009-10 for the District and its schools are identical to those published in December, and secondary school forecasts are unchanged through 2012-13. Elementary schools undergo small revisions beginning in 2010-11 due to the availability of updated birth data. Total K-12 enrollment in the TTSD has grown in 19 of the past 20 years. New housing development has contributed to enrollment growth throughout that period. Sustained growth in elementary enrollment from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s and the more recent growth in high school enrollment were influenced by the rapid increase in births caused by the "echo" of the baby boom. Since the late 1990s, a growing Latino population has also been a major contributor to the District’s enrollment growth. Under current plans there is a shrinking amount of developable residential land in the District’s communities. If plans remain unchanged and new housing construction returns to recent levels after the current downturn, the District will be near its residential capacity by the end of the 10 year horizon of these forecasts. However, additional residential capacity may be added in the West Bull Mountain area, where concept planning for areas added to the Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 is underway. Also, recent comprehensive plans envision development in the town centers of the Cities of Tigard and Tualatin that includes a mix of higher-density and affordable housing.

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/8963

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