Document Type

Technical Report

Publication Date

8-2010

Subjects

Portland Public Schools (Or.), Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, School enrollment -- Oregon -- Portland -- Forecasting, Demographic surveys -- Oregon -- Portland

Abstract

The Portland Public School District (PPS) enrolled 45,592 K-12 students in Fall 2009, an increase of 568 students (1.3 percent) from Fall 2008. This growth breaks the string of 12 consecutive years of enrollment losses and represents the District’s biggest growth since 1992. Growth was concentrated at the elementary level (K-5th grade), which added 577 students (2.6 percent). District-wide secondary levels experienced relatively stable enrollments, with a loss of 55 students (0.6 percent) in middle school grades (6th-8th), and growth of 46 students (0.4 percent) in high school grades (9th-12th). The medium growth scenario forecast prepared last year, based on October 2008 enrollments, predicted a very small K-12 increase of 22 students and an elementary enrollment increase of 347 students, significantly less growth than actually occurred. Actual enrollment growth exceeded the high growth scenario forecast of 382 K-12 students and 476 elementary students. Medium growth scenario forecasts prepared over the previous five years, between Spring 2004 and 2008, consistently predicted that district-wide K-12 enrollment would stabilize and increase beginning in 2012-13. However, the growth appears to be occurring sooner and at a faster rate than forecast. Higher October 2009 base year enrollment and increasingly robust enrollment trends observed in the last few years have resulted in the higher forecasts presented in this report.

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/8979

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