The Future of Rail Automation: A Scenario-Based Technology Roadmap for the Rail Automation Market

Authors

Christoph Hansen, Techinical University of Hamburg
Tugrul Unsal Daim, Portland State UniversityFollow
Horst Ernst, Siemens AG
Cornelius Herstatt, Techinical University of Hamburg

Published In

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Document Type

Citation

Publication Date

1-12-2016

Subjects

Technological Change, Technology -- Management, Technology assessment -- Decision making

Abstract

This paper proposes a four-step approach based on technology roadmapping and scenario-based roadmapping. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of new products and technologies and its variation under a range of possible future conditions or scenarios. A case study on rail automation for passenger transport systems is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Market drivers, new systems, products and technologies are identified in a literature review and then verified and linked by expert judgments. Analyzing the resulting graphical representation of relevance and robustness from the proposed approach leads to a periodization of products and technologies for future development and an evaluation of the most influential market driver. The proposed approach for scenario-based technology roadmapping facilitates robust decision making under future uncertainties.

DOI

10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.017

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/20761

Publisher

Elsevier

Citation Details

Hansen, C., Daim, T., Ernst, H., & Herstatt, C. (2016). The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.