First Advisor

Hal Nelson

Date of Award

Winter 3-2-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science (B.S.) in Business: Finance and University Honors

Department

Business

Language

English

DOI

10.15760/honors.1829

Abstract

Bishkek remains heavily dependent on thermal generation to meet winter electricity and heating demand, while seasonal air pollution and growing urban energy demand continue to place pressure on aging infrastructure. Although Kyrgyzstan has adopted renewable energy targets, implementation remains limited, and winter reliability in the capital continues to depend on centralized combined heat and power generation.

This study evaluates whether Bishkek can improve its seasonal electricity adequacy by 2030 through alternative supply portfolios built around currently planned projects and moderate renewable additions. Using a seasonal portfolio model, the baseline and scenario 1 are compared. The baseline includes CHP-1 modernization, CHP-2, solar generation, small hydropower, waste-to-energy, limited Toktogul support, and imported electricity. Scenario 1 builds on this baseline by introducing moderate increases in solar and local small hydropower generation.

The findings suggest that moderate renewable improvements improve cost performance and reduce marginal import exposure, but do not eliminate structural dependence on thermal generation during winter. In the second scenario, solar generation is increased by 20% and local small hydropower by 15% relative to baseline assumptions, which lowers import requirements in both seasons and reduces the weighted average portfolio cost from $78.83/MWh to $78.62/MWh. However, these gains remain insufficient to meet peak winter demand without continued reliance on CHP-based thermal generation. The results therefore indicate that a gradual transition strategy, expanding renewables while preserving firm thermal capacity, represents the most realistic near-term pathway for Bishkek through 2030.

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/44762

Download

Share

COinS