Sponsor
Hatfield School of Government. Division of Political Science
First Advisor
Birol Yesilada
Date of Publication
11-2002
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (M.S.) in Political Science
Department
Political Science
Language
English
Subjects
United States. President (2001-2009 : Bush), United States. President (1993-2001 : Clinton), Fossil fuels -- Environmental aspects, Climatic changes -- Government policy
DOI
10.15760/etd.2873
Physical Description
1 online resource (iii, 79 pages)
Abstract
The Bush administration's decision to abandon the Kyoto Protocol can be explained by prospect theory. The change in federal climate policy between the Clinton and Bush administrations was due to the difference in domain that each president operated under. President Clinton operated under a domain of losses as he associated continued fossil fuel use with future socio-economic and environmental damages from climate change. This domain of losses increased President Clinton's risk tolerances and explains his pursuit of the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Conversely, President Bush operated under a domain of gains where he did not connect fossil fuel use with future damages, rather with continued economic growth. President Bush's domain of gains reduced his risk tolerance and resulted in his pursuit of fossil fuel intensive economic development policies.
This paper defines the domain that Presidents Clinton and Bush operated under regarding climate change, the independent variable of this analysis. A total of 26 speeches on climate change by these presidents were coded to explicate domain according to two categories of beliefs. The single most salient variable is the decision makers beliefs about the perceived robustness of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change. The second most important aspect of these decision makers beliefs revolve around the role of fossil fuels in economic growth.
Once domain has been defined through the cognitive maps and each decision makers corresponding risk tolerance explicated, the dependent variable of policy preferences are analyzed. Two policy options are analyzed; the business as usual (BAU) option associated with the status quo, as well as a climate protection policy that is reflective of the emissions reductions associated with US compliance with Kyoto. These two policy options are evaluated in three case studies; the economy wide costs of compliance with Kyoto targets for greenhouse gas emissions, the public health impacts of greenhouse gas reductions, and finally against a component of the Kyoto Protocol that allows for international trading of permits to emit greenhouse gases.
Rights
In Copyright. URI: http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).
Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/17335
Recommended Citation
Nelson, Hal T., "Presidential Domain: An Exploratory Study of Prospect Theory and US Climate Policy Since 1998" (2002). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 2879.
https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.2873
Included in
American Politics Commons, Comparative Politics Commons, Environmental Policy Commons, Public Policy Commons
Comments
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