First Advisor

Anthony M. Rufolo

Date of Publication

1-1-1987

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Urban Studies: Regional Science

Department

Urban Studies and Planning

Language

English

Subjects

Forest products industry -- United States

DOI

10.15760/etd.539

Physical Description

3, ix, 126 leaves

Abstract

This study presents a multiregional model of the soft wood forest products industry in the United States, designed to describe the dynamics of interregional competition in the industry and to provide means for policy experimentation and short-term projection of regional market shares. Two products (softwood lumber and plywood), five product supply regions (including Canada), and six product demand regions are recognized. The design of the model is based on a combined top-down/bottom-up approach and consists of three interdependent components: (1) the aggregate product market, (2) regional product markets, and (3) regional factor markets. Model solutions are obtained by the simultaneous determination of national level product prices and quantities and allocation of equilibrium quantities across producing regions on the basis of their relative prices and locational advantage. The model is evaluated in an historical simulation using data for 1950-84. Graphical analysis of simulated series suggests that the model replicates short-run trends as well as cyclical movements in aggregate demand and regional market shares. The results indicate that the short-run impacts of relative prices and locational advantage on regional market shares are generally small. Price responsiveness of regional market shares for lumber appear to be considerably lower than that of plywood, indicating greater degrees of regional substitution in the plywood market. The forecasting application of the model is demonstrated by extrapolating the complete structure for two years beyond the sample period. The projected trend during this two-year period is one of increasing demand for both lumber and plywood. Domestic producers' shares of the lumber market are expected to remain relatively stable. The results show that nearly all increases in demand for lumber in this period will be satisfied by Canadian imports.

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Comments

Portland State University. School of Urban and Public Affairs.

Persistent Identifier

http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/4597

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