Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-2016
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Wallowa County
Abstract
Wallowa County’s total population has declined since 2000 at an average annual rate of about threetenths of one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, Enterprise and Joseph experienced population growth during the 2000s. In spite of population increases in the two most populous UGBs, the area outside UGBs declined by nearly one percent per year between 2000 and 2010, losing nearly 200 persons and effectively driving countywide population decline. Even so, Wallowa County’s population has slightly increased in recent years, growing by roughly 100 people between 2010 and 2015 (Figure 2).
Wallowa County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of a natural decrease and periods of net out-migration. The larger number of deaths relative to births has led to a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net migration fluctuated dramatically during the last decade, net in-migration has been consistent during recent years, contributing to a population increase.
Total population in Wallowa County as a whole will likely increase in the near-term (2015 to 2035), driven by population growth in Enterprise, Joseph, and the area outside UGBs (Figure 1). However, in the remaining 31-year period, the county is forecast to see population decline.
A rise in the magnitude of natural decrease and slow growth of net in-migration are expected to cause population growth to reach its peak in 2025, turning to population decline through the remainder of the forecast period. An aging population is expected to not only lead to an increase in deaths, but a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years will likely result in a long-term decline in births. Net migration is expected to remain relatively steady throughout the forecast period, but will not offset natural decrease after 2025.
Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/18640
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Ruan, Xiaomin; Proehl, Risa; Jurjevich, Jason R.; Rancik, Kevin; Kessi, Janai; Tetrick, David; and Michel, Julia, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Wallowa County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066" (2016). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 13.
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/18640
Introductory presentation
WallowaCountyPreliminaryPresentation_rev.pdf (627 kB)
Preliminary forecast presentation
Wallowa_County_Final_Forecast_Tables.ods (51 kB)
Final forecast tables
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, and Wallowa County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.