Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-2016
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Umatilla County
Abstract
Umatilla County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with average annual growth rates near one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Hermiston, the most populous UGB, and Umatilla UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.1 and 2.8 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period.
Umatilla County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of a steady natural increase and periods of substantial net in-migration. A larger number of births relative to deaths led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015 (Figure 12). While net in-migration fluctuated dramatically during the early and middle years of the last decade, the number of in-migrants has been slightly more stable during recent years, contributing to a population increase. Even so the natural increase continues to account for most of the population growth.
Total population in Umatilla County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2016 to 2035) compared to the long-term (2035-2066) (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to an increase in deaths. Even so, natural increase is expected to persist, combining with steady in-migration for continued strong population growth.
Umatilla County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 13,300 over the next 19 years (2016- 2035) and by close to 36,800 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2016-2066). All sub-areas are expected to experience population growth during the forecast period.
Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/18642
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Ruan, Xiaomin; Proehl, Risa; Jurjevich, Jason R.; Rancik, Kevin; Kessi, Janai; Tetrick, David; and Michel, Julia, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Umatilla County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066" (2016). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 15.
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/18642
Introductory presentation
UmatillaCountyPreliminaryForecastPresentation_rev.pdf (685 kB)
Preliminary forecast presentation
Umatilla_County_Final_Forecast_Tables.ods (53 kB)
Final forecast tables
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
Please be aware that the final population forecasts, which are in both the report and the tables, differ from the preliminary forecasts due to feedback and discussion after the March 2016 preliminary forecast presentation, prior to the release of the proposed forecasts. The preliminary forecasts were adjusted.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, and Umatilla County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.