Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-2016
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Malheur County
Abstract
During the 2000s, Malheur County, as a whole, experienced population decline (Figure 1); however three of its sub-areas recorded a slight population increase. Adrian grew at an average annual rate of nearly two percent, while Ontario and the area outside UGBs saw more modest growth rates. Even so the population loss recorded by Vale, Nyssa, and Jordan Valley totaled nearly 600, leading the countywide population to decrease.
Malheur County’s population decline in the 2000s was the combined result of a diminishing natural increase and periods of substantial net out-migration (Figure 12). The larger number of births relative to deaths has led to a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2015. Net out-migration slowed toward the end of the last decade (2000-2010) combining with a relatively steady natural increase for moderate population increase in four out of the five years since 2010.
Malheur County’s total population is forecast to grow by a little more than 400 persons (1.3 percent) from 2016 to 2066, which translates into a total countywide population of nearly 32,000 in 2066 (Figure 1). Population growth is forecast to be modest, becoming increasingly so as time progresses through the forecast period. Forecasting modest population growth is driven by both an aging population—contributing to a steady increase in deaths over the entire forecast period—as well as diminishing net out-migration.
Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/18645
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Ruan, Xiaomin; Proehl, Risa; Jurjevich, Jason R.; Rancik, Kevin; Kessi, Janai; Tetrick, David; and Michel, Julia, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2016-2066" (2016). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 18.
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/18645
Introductory presentation
MalheurCountyPreliminaryPresentation_rev.pdf (684 kB)
Preliminary forecast presentation
Malheur_County_Final_Forecast_Tables.ods (51 kB)
Final forecast tables
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, and Malheur County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.