Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the State of Oregon.
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-30-2018
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Jefferson County
Abstract
Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Jefferson County’s total population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3 percent between 2000 and 2010; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster or slower population growth. The Culver UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period, while all other sub-areas experienced average annual growth rates at or below that of the county as a whole.
Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase (more births than deaths), supplemented by periodic influxes of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. Still, a larger number of births relative to deaths created a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2016, though it is diminishing. In recent years (2014-16), net in-migration has risen and overshadowed the declining natural increase, leading to strong population growth.
Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term. The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by the county’s transition to a natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,000 over the next 18 years (2018-2043) and by more than 8,700 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068).
Persistent Identifier
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26647
Recommended Citation
Portland State University. Population Research Center; Chun, Nicholas; Rancik, Kevin; Haggerty, Rhey; Ollinger, Joshua; and Rynerson, Charles, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068" (2018). Oregon Population Forecast Program. 43.
https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/26647
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, forecast comparison and Jefferson County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.