Sponsor
This project is funded by the State of Oregon through the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD).
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-2015
Subjects
Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Jackson County
Abstract
Different growth patterns occur in different parts of the county and these local trends within the UGBs and the area outside UGBs collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.
Jackson County’s total population has grown steadily since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of above one percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1); however some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Eagle Point and Central Point UGBs posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.6 and 2.9 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period.
Jackson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of substantial net in-migration and natural increase. Meanwhile an aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This along with more women choosing to have fewer children and have them at older ages has led to slower growth in births. The more rapid growth in deaths relative to that of births caused natural increase—the difference between births and deaths—to decline to almost nothing by 2014. While net in-migration outweighed declining natural increase during the early and middle years of the last decade, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the later years—slowing population growth by 2010. Since 2010 net in-migration has driven rising population growth rates, while natural increase continues to shrink.
Total population in Jackson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the first 20 years of the forecast period (2015 to 2035), relative to the last 30 years (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to lead to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease occurs, population growth will become increasingly reliant on net in-migration.
Even so, Jackson County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 44,600 over the next 20 years (2015-2035) and by nearly 95,600 over the entire 50-year forecast period (2015-2065). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth in the 2000s are expected to experience similar rates of population growth during the forecast period.
Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/15942
Recommended Citation
Ruan, Xiaomin, R. Proehl, J. Jurjevich, K. Rancik, J. Kessi, C. Gorecki, and D. Tetrick, "Coordinated Population Forecast for Jackson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2015-2065." Portland State University Population Research Center, June 2015.
Jackson County Introductory Presentation
R1_Medford_Jackson_forecast-presentation.pdf (640 kB)
Jackson County Preliminary Forecast Presentation
Jackson_Final_Forecasts_201506.ods (45 kB)
Jackson County Final Forecast Tables
Description
This report is published by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, and is a product of the Oregon Population Forecast Program.
The introductory presentation, preliminary forecast presentation, and Jackson County final forecast tables are attached to this document as supplemental files.