Document Type

Report

Publication Date

6-30-2021

Subjects

Oregon -- Population -- Statistics, Demographic surveys -- Oregon, Population forecasting -- Oregon -- Lane County

Abstract

How to Read this Report

This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable as supplemental files below.

• Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output.

• Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐ areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071).

County Summary:

Lane County's growth centers around the Eugene/Springfield metropolitan statistical area (MSA). According to the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS), Eugene has 74,000 housing units. Eugene approved 3.8 thousand units over the last four years, with at least 830 under construction in 2019 and 2020 (1.1% of total stock). Springfield has an estimated 25 thousand housing units, as well as 990 units in the 5-year pipeline with 120 more in site planning. If all units materialize, there will be at least 1% AAGR in the housing stock.

The University of Oregon is a key economic player and growth driver and contributed a large student population within the county. Eugene and Springfield support the region's economy, while significant traded-sector job growth is rarely cited in responses from smaller cities. Both Eugene and Springfield expect their economic bases to grow as the University of Oregon is ramping up a science business incubator that expect to add 700+ jobs. Although manufacturing losses sustained in recent decades, Eugene expects to add 300 manufacturing jobs back now that one large vacant industrial complex has been purchased by a new company. Springfield expects job growth at Pacific Insurance, local healthcare providers, Wayfair, and potentially Royal Caribbean. These student/job gains drive population growth pressure in Eugene/Springfield and the broader area, as seen in sustained development activity. Nearly all cities within 30 minutes cite tight housing markets and low vacancy (e.g., Coburg, Lowell, Creswell, and Junction City) based on the general surveys collected by the PRC (Appendix A). Some cities have adopted policies that somewhat support housing growth, but some communities do not expect significant growth (e.g., Coburg and Dunes City).

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/36880

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