Published In

Population Research and Policy Review

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-1-2025

Subjects

Population Forecasting -- West Texas

Abstract

This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts using the 107 counties that make up West Texas as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria routinely applied by state and local demographers. We also report the results of two independent comparisons supporting the argument that our approach is valid. The paper concludes it is well-suited for developing probabilistic population forecasts in the United States and elsewhere.

Rights

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licen ses/by/4.0/.

Locate the Document

https://doi-org/10.1007/s11113-025-09961-3

DOI

10.1007/s11113-025-09961-3

Persistent Identifier

https://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/43941

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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